Coronavirus model predicts devastating number of US deaths by October

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Projections calculate that the Autumn will be a difficult time for many Americans, with numbers expected to rise within September and October.

Last week, the model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, estimated 170,000 deaths for this same period.

The model has been referred to on several occasions by the White House as a barometer for coronavirus figures.

It also is featured on the US Centre’s for Disease Control and Prevention website.

More than 8 million people worldwide have been diagnosed with COVID-19, but it is expected that number will climb higher than that figure due to testing shortages, many unreported cases and suspicions the Government are not covering the true scope of their nations outbreaks.

The United States has been the most hit, now more than 2.1 million diagnosed cases have been confirmed, alongside 116,114 deaths.

Some states in America are attempting to ease the lockdown.

Florida has started their second phase of reopening, the move sees bars and movies theatres now accepting customers.

Governor Ron DeSantis believes reopening will provide a “safe, smart, step-by-step approach”.

Meanwhile, Texas has announced they will allow almost any business to work at 50 percent capacity.

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Epidemiologists suggest that plans to continue reopening could result in more infections.

Wafaa El-Sadr, professor of epidemiology at Columbia University said: “The worrisome thing for me is that there’s a lot of fatigue in the population overall.

“People feel they have done distancing and they are thirsting to get outside and connect with each other.

“If this surge requires us taking a step back, how do we convince people to do that?


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I feel we’ve made five steps forward and now maybe one step back.”

Whilst testing rates have increased in the past month, states still don’t have an effective track and trace system to inform people if they have come into contact with an infected person.

Ira Longini, professor of biostatistics at the University of Florida also suggested numbers will continue to rise if states continue to ease lockdown.

Miss Longini said: “All the modelling has shown if you reopen without extensive testing and contract tracing, you’ll see an increase in the epidemic,”

“That activity is not happening in an organized way in Florida, it’s haphazard.

That points towards an increase over summer and then a potentially much bigger increase in the fall.”

Brazil’s coronavirus cases and deaths have risen to no.2 in the world, with the official death toll nearly 44,000.

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