Met Office warns Brits 2023 could be one of worlds hottest years ever
Next year is set to be one of the world’s hottest on record, new research has revealed.
The Met Office has warned that temperatures are expected to be up for what would be the 10th year in a row, with only three years this century seeing higher mercury than next year's prediction.
Warnings have been issued that global temperatures are expected to be at least 1C warmer than pre-industrial levels – regarded as the period from 1850 to 1900 – and are expected to sit at around 1.2C higher than before the effects of man-made global warming began.
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Temperatures are expected to be somewhere between 1.08C and 1.32C higher (with 1.2C as the middle point), in what would be the 10th consecutive year pre-industrial levels were topped by at least 1C.
The run began in 2014 and temperatures haven’t dropped to within a degree of pre-industrial levels since.
The Met Office reiterated the vital need to now keep temperatures below 1.5C.
The leader of the Met Office’s 2023 global temperature forecast, Dr Nick Dunstone, said: “The global temperature over the last three years has been influenced by the effect of a prolonged La Niña – where cooler than average sea-surface temperatures occur in the tropical Pacific.
“La Niña has a temporary cooling effect on global average temperature.”
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He added: “For next year our climate model is indicating an end to the three consecutive years with La Niña state with a return to relative warmer conditions in parts of the tropical Pacific.
“This shift is likely to lead to global temperature in 2023 being warmer than 2022.”
The Met Office’s Head of Long-range Prediction, Professor Adam Scaife, echoed the concerns of Dr Dunstone.
He said: “So far 2016 has been the warmest year in the observational record which began in 1850. 2016 was an El Niño year where the global temperature was boosted by warmer waters in parts of the tropical Pacific.
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“Without a preceding El Niño to boost global temperature, 2023 may not be a record-breaking year, but with the background increase in global greenhouse gas emissions continuing apace it is likely that next year will be another notable year in the series.”
One of the organisation’s experts in predicting the climate, Dr Doug Smith, added that although the number was concerning, what made it worse was that it covered bigger changes in specific parts of the globe.
He said: “The fact that global average temperatures are at or above 1.0°C for a decade masks the considerable temperature variation across the world.
“Some locations such as the Arctic have warmed by several degrees since pre-industrial times.”
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