UK long-range forecast: Heatwave to ‘exceed 30C’ as blistering African plume hits Britain

BBC Weather: UK set for humidity and thundery downpours

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Yesterday saw a barrage of heavy rain and thunderstorms bombard the nation following days of sweltering heat. The Met Office has now issued yellow weather warnings for almost all of England over the next four days with thunderstorms and flooding expected in some parts. The thunderstorms are due to a small, low-pressure system moving in from Europe, with warmer surface-level air meeting colder upper air.

However, Tyler Roys, a meteorologist at Accuweather, said the hot weather could soon return to the UK later this summer as a North African plume sweeps towards the nation.

He told “There is a very good chance that it will get hotter later this summer.

“There is also a very good chance for temperatures in the southern UK to exceed 30C in July and or early August.

“The best locations to see 30C+ temperatures this summer will be in Southeast and Southern England and the southern half of the Midlands.

“To see the hottest temperatures will be somewhere in the London region, in a location like Northolt.

“Most if not all the hot air will come from the south, so across Spain, Portugal and France.

“This air originates from Northern Africa. So a southerly or southwesterly wind will largely be responsible for the hot air making it into the southern UK.”

At the moment, temperatures appear to be nudging 30C during July on WXCHARTS’ latest heat maps.

South-eastern regions including Kent, London and Essex could see scorching highs of 25C on Thursday, July 1.

Further south, Portsmouth, Brighton and Southampton could also bask in 24C on the same day, while Birmingham, Bristol and Luton are also at 22C.

Northern regions including Manchester, Leeds and Stoke could also be hit with 21c.

Netweather’s long-range forecast between Monday, July 5, and Tuesday, said July could see “hot, dry, sunny weather”.

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The forecast said: “There is quite a strong signal for above average pressure and below average rainfall during this period, with temperatures above normal, possibly substantially so.

“While there is a lot of uncertainty over the specifics of the pattern, it looks probable that high pressure will build across the country from the south and east for at least some of this period, resulting in a spell of warm/hot dry sunny weather, with relatively unsettled and cooler weather most likely to arise early and late in the period.

“Mean temperatures are most likely to be around 2-3C above the long-term normal for most, and it is likely to be generally drier and sunnier than normal.”

Brian Gaze, a forecaster at Weather Outlook, said temperatures could then be “above average” in August.

His seasonal forecast said: “The driest weather will probably be in the south and east, but a heightened risk of heavy showers or thunderstorms means local variations could be large.

“Temperatures should be above average when aggregated over the period as a whole.

“The second half of August could see the chance of settled and very warm period increased.”

The BBC’s long-range forecast also predicted high pressure potentially bringing warm air in the UK next month.

The forecast said: “There are some robust signals for high pressure to be more of a feature nearby or overhead later in July.

“But this is likely to be on a temporary basis rather than seeing several weeks of dry, sunny weather.

“This is thanks to the warm waters in the Atlantic, which will tend to draw high pressure away from us with low pressure lingering near Scandinavia.

“Transient highs should occasionally drift across northern Europe and bring some dry, settled, and warm spells that last for a few days.

“The alternate pattern for the first half of July is that high pressure lingers overhead throughout, leading to several weeks of warmer than normal, dry, and largely sunny weather.”

The Met Office added the warmer periods could occasionally be broken up by thunderstorms due to humid and air pushing in.

The forecast between Thursday, July 1, and Thursday, July 15, said: “Confidence is low through this period due to mixed and weak signals, but models suggest that usual summertime conditions are most probable.

“We are likely to see periods of dry, settled and warm weather interspersed with occasional days of thicker cloud, rain and stronger winds.

“Temperatures are likely to be close to average nationally. Southeastern areas may see some warm or very warm conditions at times,.

“But these probably balanced out by cooler interludes moving in from the west.

“Overall, rainfall accumulations are expected to be close to average for the time of the year.

“Whilst southeastern areas may see fewer spells of persistent rain, thunderstorms may develop during warmer periods.”

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