US election 2020: Can Democrats take Texas and Florida?
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Texas and Florida make up two of the most coveted prizes on the US electoral map thanks to their Electoral College worth. Combined, they represent 67 of the total 538 Electoral College votes, 270 of which a candidate needs to claim victory today. Both states traditionally lean Republican, but Joe Biden’s onslaught this year has considerably narrowed the competition.
Can Democrats take Texas?
Texas is a historically red state, with a significant concentration of conservative voters.
In 2016, Donald Trump and Mike Pence won the Electoral college by nine points and nearly one million votes.
But the picture seems very different in 2020, as analysts have reassigned the state’s status from Republican-leaning to “toss-up” thanks to early voting.
The term suggests either Mr Biden or Mr Trump could take the state, with both on chances of 48.1 percent as of this morning.
James Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project, told the Atlantic voter turnout, which traditionally benefits Democrats, could decide the race in the Lone Star State.
He said: “The raw numbers in Texas, and the year-to-year or the election-to-election increase [in voter turnout] is really, you know, fairly stunning.
“Texas is competitive this year, and it’s much more competitive than we’ve seen for 20 years.”
Although hopes are high, they remain hopes only, as a win currently seems difficult to call, but Mr Biden doesn’t need it to beat Mr Trump.
Can Democrats take Florida?
A state he may need, however, is Florida, an infamous swing worth as many Electoral College votes as New York.
Florida’s 29 votes fluctuate between Democrat and Republican, making it a potential decider for most elections.
High-quality polling makes it nearly a dead heat, but not in quite the same way as Texas, with Mr Biden currently ahead.
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The former VP leads the President by three to six points, indicating a shaky advantage.
Analysts state a lead such as this is often shaky, and an error in the polls could see Mr Biden’s advantage crumble.
Florida surveys from 2016 overestimated Hillary Clinton’s support in the state, and the same could happen again in 2020.
But Mr Trump relied on late voters back then, and pollsters have identified them as a shrinking population.
Only two percent of voters said they hasn’t made up their mind yet when polled this month.
Turnout will be key here again, with early indications of a swell in local voters for 2020.
Democrats have a real advantage in the state when it comes to mail-in ballots, which most people said they would vote with this year.
The Monmouth and Quinnipiac polls found only 17 percent of Floridians said they would vote on the day, leaving a potentially concerning situation for Republicans.
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